Stochastic model for analysis of longitudinal data on aging and mortality.

Journal Article

Aging-related changes in a human organism follow dynamic regularities, which contribute to the observed age patterns of incidence and mortality curves. An organism's 'optimal' (normal) physiological state changes with age, affecting the values of risks of disease and death. The resistance to stresses, as well as adaptive capacity, declines with age. An exposure to improper environment results in persisting deviation of individuals' physiological (and biological) indices from their normal state (due to allostatic adaptation), which, in turn, increases chances of disease and death. Despite numerous studies investigating these effects, there is no conceptual framework, which would allow for putting all these findings together, and analyze longitudinal data taking all these dynamic connections into account. In this paper we suggest such a framework, using a new version of stochastic process model of aging and mortality. Using this model, we elaborated a statistical method for analyses of longitudinal data on aging, health and longevity and tested it using different simulated data sets. The results show that the model may characterize complicated interplay among different components of aging-related changes in humans and that the model parameters are identifiable from the data.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Yashin, AI; Arbeev, KG; Akushevich, I; Kulminski, A; Akushevich, L; Ukraintseva, SV

Published Date

  • August 2007

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 208 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 538 - 551

PubMed ID

  • 17300818

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1879-3134

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0025-5564

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1016/j.mbs.2006.11.006

Language

  • eng