Health decline, aging and mortality: how are they related?

The deterioration of human health with age is manifested in changes of thousands of physiological and biological variables. The contribution of some of such changes to the mortality risk may be small and cannot be reliably detected by existing statistical methods. A cumulative index of health/well-being disorders, which counts changes in observed variables on the way of losing health, may be an appropriate way to take the effects of such variables into account. In this paper we investigate regularities of the aging-related changes in human health/well-being/survival status described by such an index using the new version of the quadratic hazard model of human aging and mortality. We found that the shape and the location of the mortality risk, considered as a function of the introduced health-related index, changes with age reflecting the decline in stress resistance and the age-dependence of the "optimal" health/well-being status. Comparison of these results with findings from early studies using the Cox's-like model of risk function indicates that the results are likely to describe regularities of deterioration in human health during the aging process.

Duke Scholars

Author Anatoli I. Yashin Social Science Research Institute

Author Konstantin Arbeev Social Science Research Institute

Author Alexander Kulminski Social Science Research Institute

Author Igor Akushevich Social Science Research Institute

Author Svetlana Ukraintseva Social Science Research Institute