Options for fertility policy transition in China


Journal Article

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three-stage "soft-landing" strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7-year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014-15 to 2032-35 a universal two-child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032-35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged. © 2007 The Population Council, Inc.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Yi, Z

Published Date

  • June 1, 2007

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 33 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 215 - 246

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1728-4457

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0098-7921

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00168.x

Citation Source

  • Scopus