Empirical model particularities and belief in the natural rate hypothesis

Journal Article

Economists test to strengthen conviction, though mostly without disclosing how this can occur. There is a clear line of logical implication from theory to model; but in the process there may be a narrowing and specialization of the hypothesis so that it is not clear what weight should be placed upon the result of a test on the model. Empirical models and tests may be narrowed down so far that they involve certain nonunique characteristics of the original theories. Even when a hypothesis is confirmed, no reverse inference back to theory can be made from such tests. We illustrate how a number of such 'characteristics tests' worked, drawing on American economists' tests of the natural rate hypothesis in the 1970s. © 1995.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Kim, J; Marchi, ND; Morgan, MS

Published Date

  • 1995

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 67 / 1

Start / End Page

  • 81 - 102

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0304-4076