Extraneous expert information


Journal Article

When a Bayesian decision maker has to choose among information sources, he should consider the anticipated impact that the information will have on his posterior distribution. In some cases he may determine at the outset that an information source will have no effect on his posterior beliefs, no matter what that source says. Such an information source is called extraneous. In this paper we discuss Bayesian conditions for extraneous information sources, and show a hypothetical example involving experts with overlapping information. Analysis of U.S. weather forecasts demonstrates how this concept can be operationalized to test hypotheses concerning the use of information by forecasters. Copyright © 1985 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Clemen, RT

Published Date

  • January 1, 1985

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 4 / 4

Start / End Page

  • 329 - 348

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1099-131X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0277-6693

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1002/for.3980040403

Citation Source

  • Scopus