Prognostic model for predicting survival of patients with metastatic urothelial cancer treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy.

Published

Journal Article

A prognostic model that predicts overall survival (OS) for metastatic urothelial cancer (MetUC) patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy was developed, validated, and compared with a commonly used Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) risk-score model. Data from 7 protocols that enrolled 308 patients with MetUC were pooled. An external multi-institutional dataset was used to validate the model. The primary measurement of predictive discrimination was Harrell's c-index, computed with 95% confidence interval (CI). The final model included four pretreatment variables to predict OS: visceral metastases, albumin, performance status, and hemoglobin. The Harrell's c-index was 0.67 for the four-variable model and 0.64 for the MSKCC risk-score model, with a prediction improvement for OS (the U statistic and its standard deviation were used to calculate the two-sided P = .002). In the validation cohort, the c-indices for the four-variable and the MSKCC risk-score models were 0.63 (95% CI = 0.56 to 0.69) and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.52 to 0.65), respectively, with superiority of the four-variable model compared with the MSKCC risk-score model for OS (the U statistic and its standard deviation were used to calculate the two-sided P = .02).

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Apolo, AB; Ostrovnaya, I; Halabi, S; Iasonos, A; Philips, GK; Rosenberg, JE; Riches, J; Small, EJ; Milowsky, MI; Bajorin, DF

Published Date

  • April 3, 2013

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 105 / 7

Start / End Page

  • 499 - 503

PubMed ID

  • 23411591

Pubmed Central ID

  • 23411591

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1460-2105

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1093/jnci/djt015

Language

  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States