Rational expectations: Retrospect and prospect


Journal Article

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the 50th anniversary of John Muth's Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements (Econometrica 1961). The panel consisted of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion was moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touched on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including its history, starting with Muth's work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future. The panel discussion was held in a session sponsored by the History of Economics Society at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) meetings in the Capitol 1 Room of the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Denver, Colorado. © 2012 Cambridge University Press.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Hoover, KD; Young, W

Published Date

  • July 1, 2013

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 17 / 5

Start / End Page

  • 1169 - 1192

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1469-8056

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 1365-1005

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1017/S1365100511000812

Citation Source

  • Scopus