Nuclear weapons, state bellicosity, and prospects for an East Asian security architecture

Introduction North Korea’s increasingly advanced nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs raise a fundamental question: As it becomes a nuclear state, will North Korea become more bellicose toward South Korea, Japan, and the United States? This question is clearly important when we think about the prospects for a Northeast and broader Asian security architecture, and I therefore seek to address it in this paper. I do so by examining whether states that have attained nuclear status have become more bellicose, that is, whether they have become more likely to use acute pressure, and especially military force, to settle disputes with other states, and I then draw generalizations about that behavior to the manner in which we might expect North Korea to behave as it develops its nuclear arsenal.

Duke Scholars

Author Joseph Grieco Political Science