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Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Publication ,  Journal Article
Eyring, V; Arblaster, JM; Cionni, I; Sedláček, J; Perlwitz, J; Young, PJ; Bekki, S; Bergmann, D; Cameron-Smith, P; Collins, WJ; Faluvegi, G ...
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
May 27, 2013

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections. Key PointsCMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recoveryMultimodel ozone agrees well with observations but individual models deviateFuture climate is sensitive to rates of both ozone recovery and GHG increases ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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Published In

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

Publication Date

May 27, 2013

Volume

118

Issue

10

Start / End Page

5029 / 5060

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Eyring, V., Arblaster, J. M., Cionni, I., Sedláček, J., Perlwitz, J., Young, P. J., … Watanabe, S. (2013). Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 118(10), 5029–5060. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50316
Eyring, V., J. M. Arblaster, I. Cionni, J. Sedláček, J. Perlwitz, P. J. Young, S. Bekki, et al. “Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations.” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 118, no. 10 (May 27, 2013): 5029–60. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50316.
Eyring V, Arblaster JM, Cionni I, Sedláček J, Perlwitz J, Young PJ, et al. Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 2013 May 27;118(10):5029–60.
Eyring, V., et al. “Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations.” Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, vol. 118, no. 10, May 2013, pp. 5029–60. Scopus, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316.
Eyring V, Arblaster JM, Cionni I, Sedláček J, Perlwitz J, Young PJ, Bekki S, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith P, Collins WJ, Faluvegi G, Gottschaldt KD, Horowitz LW, Kinnison DE, Lamarque JF, Marsh DR, Saint-Martin D, Shindell DT, Sudo K, Szopa S, Watanabe S. Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 2013 May 27;118(10):5029–5060.

Published In

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

Publication Date

May 27, 2013

Volume

118

Issue

10

Start / End Page

5029 / 5060

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences