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Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zheng, H; Yang, YC; Land, KC
Published in: Population research and policy review
February 2016

This paper investigates historical changes in both single-year-of-age adult mortality rates and variation of the single-year mortality rates around expected values within age intervals over the past two centuries in 15 developed countries. We apply an integrated Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort-Variance Function Regression Model to data from the Human Mortality Database. We find increasing variation of the single-year rates within broader age intervals over the life course for all countries, but the increasing variation slows down at age 90 and then increases again after age 100 for some countries; the variation significantly declined across cohorts born after the early 20th century; and the variation continuously declined over much of the last two centuries but has substantially increased since 1980. Our further analysis finds the recent increases in mortality variation are not due to increasing proportions of older adults in the population, trends in mortality rates, or disproportionate delays in deaths from degenerative and man-made diseases, but rather due to increasing variations in young and middle-age adults.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Population research and policy review

DOI

EISSN

1573-7829

ISSN

0167-5923

Publication Date

February 2016

Volume

35

Issue

1

Start / End Page

49 / 71

Related Subject Headings

  • Demography
  • 4406 Human geography
  • 4403 Demography
  • 1603 Demography
 

Citation

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Zheng, H., Yang, Y. C., & Land, K. C. (2016). Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries. Population Research and Policy Review, 35(1), 49–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9379-4
Zheng, Hui, Y Claire Yang, and Kenneth C. Land. “Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries.Population Research and Policy Review 35, no. 1 (February 2016): 49–71. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-015-9379-4.
Zheng H, Yang YC, Land KC. Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries. Population research and policy review. 2016 Feb;35(1):49–71.
Zheng, Hui, et al. “Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries.Population Research and Policy Review, vol. 35, no. 1, Feb. 2016, pp. 49–71. Epmc, doi:10.1007/s11113-015-9379-4.
Zheng H, Yang YC, Land KC. Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries. Population research and policy review. 2016 Feb;35(1):49–71.
Journal cover image

Published In

Population research and policy review

DOI

EISSN

1573-7829

ISSN

0167-5923

Publication Date

February 2016

Volume

35

Issue

1

Start / End Page

49 / 71

Related Subject Headings

  • Demography
  • 4406 Human geography
  • 4403 Demography
  • 1603 Demography