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Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction

Publication ,  Journal Article
Prava, VR; Clemen, RT; Hobbs, BF; Kenney, MA
Published in: Decision Analysis
March 1, 2016

As probability elicitation becomes widely used, methods other than one-on-one interviews are being used to elicit expert probabilities. This paper considers biases that may arise when probabilities are elicited in an online or workbook setting. We develop a prescriptive model in which the elicited probability is a convex combination of the experts underlying probability with elements of partition dependence and two anchors arising from responses to previous questions ("carryover" bias). Our model, applied to two data sets, allows us to estimate the amount of the various biases in a set of elicited probabilities from experts. We find that both the format of the questionswhether they appear on the same or separate pages/screens and the ordering of the questions can affect the amount of bias. Our research addresses biases in the presence of multiple anchors and provides guidance on manipulating the availability of anchors. The results demonstrate the persistence of anchoring even with careful questionnaire design; thus, the proposed model-based methods are useful to suggest corrections for the resulting biases.

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Published In

Decision Analysis

DOI

EISSN

1545-8504

ISSN

1545-8490

Publication Date

March 1, 2016

Volume

13

Issue

1

Start / End Page

51 / 67

Related Subject Headings

  • 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology
  • 5003 Philosophy
  • 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1503 Business and Management
  • 0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy
 

Citation

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Prava, V. R., Clemen, R. T., Hobbs, B. F., & Kenney, M. A. (2016). Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction. Decision Analysis, 13(1), 51–67. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0323
Prava, V. R., R. T. Clemen, B. F. Hobbs, and M. A. Kenney. “Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction.” Decision Analysis 13, no. 1 (March 1, 2016): 51–67. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2015.0323.
Prava, V. R., et al. “Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction.” Decision Analysis, vol. 13, no. 1, Mar. 2016, pp. 51–67. Scopus, doi:10.1287/deca.2015.0323.

Published In

Decision Analysis

DOI

EISSN

1545-8504

ISSN

1545-8490

Publication Date

March 1, 2016

Volume

13

Issue

1

Start / End Page

51 / 67

Related Subject Headings

  • 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology
  • 5003 Philosophy
  • 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1503 Business and Management
  • 0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy