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Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources

Publication ,  Journal Article
Winkler, RL
Published in: Management Science
April 1981

Inferences or decisions in the face of uncertainty should be based on all available information. Thus, when probability distributions for an uncertain quantity are obtained from experts, models, or other information sources, these distributions should be combined to form a single consensus distribution upon which inferences and decisions can be based. An important feature of information from different sources is the possibility of stochastic dependence, and a consensus model which formally allows for such dependence is developed in this paper. Under normality, the model yields reasonably tractable results, and the consensus distribution is quite sensitive to the degree of dependence.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Management Science

DOI

EISSN

1526-5501

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

April 1981

Volume

27

Issue

4

Start / End Page

479 / 488

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences
 

Citation

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Winkler, R. L. (1981). Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources. Management Science, 27(4), 479–488. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479
Winkler, Robert L. “Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources.” Management Science 27, no. 4 (April 1981): 479–88. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479.
Winkler RL. Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources. Management Science. 1981 Apr;27(4):479–88.
Winkler, Robert L. “Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources.” Management Science, vol. 27, no. 4, Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), Apr. 1981, pp. 479–88. Crossref, doi:10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479.
Winkler RL. Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources. Management Science. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS); 1981 Apr;27(4):479–488.

Published In

Management Science

DOI

EISSN

1526-5501

ISSN

0025-1909

Publication Date

April 1981

Volume

27

Issue

4

Start / End Page

479 / 488

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Related Subject Headings

  • Operations Research
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 08 Information and Computing Sciences