A time-series analysis of the relation between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction and stroke in Brazil over more than a decade.

BACKGROUND: The effect of socioeconomic stressors on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is currently open to debate. Using time-series analysis, our study aimed to evaluate the relationship between unemployment rate and hospital admission for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Brazil over a recent 11-year span. METHODS AND RESULTS: Data on monthly hospital admissions for AMI and stroke from March 2002 to December 2013 were extracted from the Brazilian Public Health System Database. The monthly unemployment rate was obtained from the Brazilian Institute for Applied Economic Research, during the same period. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to test the association of temporal series. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05. From March 2002 to December 2013, 778,263 admissions for AMI and 1,581,675 for stroke were recorded. During this time period, the unemployment rate decreased from 12.9% in 2002 to 4.3% in 2013, while admissions due to AMI and stroke increased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between the unemployment rate and admissions for AMI but not for stroke (estimate coefficient=2.81±0.93; p=0.003 and estimate coefficient=2.40±4.34; p=0.58, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: From 2002 to 2013, hospital admissions for AMI and stroke increased, whereas the unemployment rate decreased. However, the adjusted ARIMA model showed a positive association between unemployment rate and admissions due to AMI but not for stroke. Further studies are warranted to validate our findings and to better explore the mechanisms by which socioeconomic stressors, such as unemployment, might impact on the incidence of CVD.

Duke Scholars

Author Hayden Barry Bosworth Population Health Sciences

Author Renato Delascio Lopes Medicine, Cardiology

Author Matthew E. Dupre Population Health Sciences