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Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zhang, N; Huang, H; Duarte, M; Zhang, J
Published in: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
June 1, 2016

Social media has developed extremely fast in metropolises in recent years resulting in more and more rumors disturbing our daily lives. Knowing the characteristics of rumor propagation in metropolises can help the government make efficient rumor refutation plans. In this paper, we established a dynamic spatio-temporal comprehensive risk assessment model for rumor propagation based on an improved 8-state ICSAR model (Ignorant, Information Carrier, Information Spreader, Advocate, Removal), large personal activity trajectory data, and governmental rumor refutation (anti-rumor) scenarios. Combining these relevant data with the 'big' traffic data on the use of subways, buses, and taxis, we simulated daily oral communications among inhabitants in Beijing. In order to analyze rumor and anti-rumor competition in the actual social network, personal resistance, personal preference, conformity, rumor intensity, government rumor refutation and other influencing factors were considered. Based on the developed risk assessment model, a long-term dynamic rumor propagation simulation for a seven day period was conducted and a comprehensive rumor propagation risk distribution map was obtained. A set of the sensitivity analyses were conducted for different social media and propagation routes. We assessed different anti-rumor coverage ratios and the rumor-spreading thresholds at which the government started to launch anti-rumor actions. The results we obtained provide worthwhile references useful for governmental decision making towards control of social-disrupting rumors.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

DOI

ISSN

0378-4371

Publication Date

June 1, 2016

Volume

451

Start / End Page

403 / 419

Related Subject Headings

  • Fluids & Plasmas
  • 4902 Mathematical physics
  • 4901 Applied mathematics
  • 0206 Quantum Physics
  • 0105 Mathematical Physics
  • 0102 Applied Mathematics
 

Citation

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ICMJE
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Zhang, N., Huang, H., Duarte, M., & Zhang, J. (2016). Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 451, 403–419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.131
Zhang, N., H. Huang, M. Duarte, and J. Zhang. “Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications 451 (June 1, 2016): 403–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.131.
Zhang N, Huang H, Duarte M, Zhang J. Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 2016 Jun 1;451:403–19.
Zhang, N., et al. “Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, vol. 451, June 2016, pp. 403–19. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.12.131.
Zhang N, Huang H, Duarte M, Zhang J. Risk analysis for rumor propagation in metropolises based on improved 8-state ICSAR model and dynamic personal activity trajectories. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 2016 Jun 1;451:403–419.
Journal cover image

Published In

Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

DOI

ISSN

0378-4371

Publication Date

June 1, 2016

Volume

451

Start / End Page

403 / 419

Related Subject Headings

  • Fluids & Plasmas
  • 4902 Mathematical physics
  • 4901 Applied mathematics
  • 0206 Quantum Physics
  • 0105 Mathematical Physics
  • 0102 Applied Mathematics