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Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zhang, N; Huang, H; Duarte, M; Zhang, JJ
Published in: Environment international
September 2016

Knowledge on the characteristics of infectious disease propagation in metropolises plays a critical role in guiding public health intervention strategies to reduce death tolls, disease incidence, and possible economic losses. Based on the SIR model, we established a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment model to compute infectious disease propagation within an urban setting using Beijing, China as a case study. The model was developed for a dynamic population distribution using actual data on location, density of residences and offices, and means of public transportation (e.g., subways, buses and taxis). We evaluated four influencing factors including biological, behavioral, environmental parameters and infectious sources. The model output resulted in a set of maps showing how the four influencing factors affected the trend and characteristics of airborne infectious disease propagation in Beijing. We compared the scenarios for the long-term dynamic propagation of infectious disease without governmental interventions versus scenarios with government intervention and hospital coordinated emergency responses. Lastly, the sensitivity of the average number of people at different location in spreading infections is analyzed. Based on our results, we provide valuable recommendations to governmental agencies and the public in order to minimize the disease propagation.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Environment international

DOI

EISSN

1873-6750

ISSN

0160-4120

Publication Date

September 2016

Volume

94

Start / End Page

369 / 379

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Assessment
  • Public Health
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Communicable Diseases
 

Citation

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Zhang, N., Huang, H., Duarte, M., & Zhang, J. J. (2016). Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis. Environment International, 94, 369–379. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.038
Zhang, Nan, Hong Huang, Marlyn Duarte, and Junfeng Jim Zhang. “Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.Environment International 94 (September 2016): 369–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.038.
Zhang N, Huang H, Duarte M, Zhang JJ. Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis. Environment international. 2016 Sep;94:369–79.
Zhang, Nan, et al. “Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.Environment International, vol. 94, Sept. 2016, pp. 369–79. Epmc, doi:10.1016/j.envint.2016.03.038.
Zhang N, Huang H, Duarte M, Zhang JJ. Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis. Environment international. 2016 Sep;94:369–379.
Journal cover image

Published In

Environment international

DOI

EISSN

1873-6750

ISSN

0160-4120

Publication Date

September 2016

Volume

94

Start / End Page

369 / 379

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Assessment
  • Public Health
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Communicable Diseases