When to abandon a research project and search for a new one
We investigate the cost of the opportunity delayed by working on one project with uncertain success rather than searching for a new project. We answer this question: How long should a firm work on a research project with uncertain success before abandoning it if the only alternative is to search for a new project to work on? Rather than treating the opportunity as an exogenous alternative, this approach endogenizes the opportunity value and the attendant cost of its delay. We consider cases with both a finite and an infinite number of potential projects. We derive the optimal stopping time and show that it increases with the discount rate, with the rate of arrival of project failure, and with the prior probability that the project can be successfully completed. The optimal stopping time decreases with the rates of new project arrival and project completion.
Duke Scholars
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- Operations Research
- 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
- 1503 Business and Management
- 0802 Computation Theory and Mathematics
- 0102 Applied Mathematics
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Published In
DOI
EISSN
ISSN
Publication Date
Volume
Issue
Start / End Page
Related Subject Headings
- Operations Research
- 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
- 1503 Business and Management
- 0802 Computation Theory and Mathematics
- 0102 Applied Mathematics