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Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Caspi, A; Houts, RM; Belsky, DW; Harrington, H; Hogan, S; Ramrakha, S; Poulton, R; Moffitt, TE
Published in: Nature human behaviour
January 2016

Policy-makers are interested in early-years interventions to ameliorate childhood risks. They hope for improved adult outcomes in the long run, bringing return on investment. How much return can be expected depends, partly, on how strongly childhood risks forecast adult outcomes. But there is disagreement about whether childhood determines adulthood. We integrated multiple nationwide administrative databases and electronic medical records with the four-decade Dunedin birth-cohort study to test child-to-adult prediction in a different way, by using a population-segmentation approach. A segment comprising one-fifth of the cohort accounted for 36% of the cohort's injury insurance-claims; 40% of excess obese-kilograms; 54% of cigarettes smoked; 57% of hospital nights; 66% of welfare benefits; 77% of fatherless childrearing; 78% of prescription fills; and 81% of criminal convictions. Childhood risks, including poor age-three brain health, predicted this segment with large effect sizes. Early-years interventions effective with this population segment could yield very large returns on investment.

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Published In

Nature human behaviour

DOI

EISSN

2397-3374

ISSN

2397-3374

Publication Date

January 2016

Volume

1

Start / End Page

0005

Related Subject Headings

  • 52 Psychology
  • 42 Health sciences
  • 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences
 

Citation

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Caspi, A., Houts, R. M., Belsky, D. W., Harrington, H., Hogan, S., Ramrakha, S., … Moffitt, T. E. (2016). Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden. Nature Human Behaviour, 1, 0005. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-016-0005
Caspi, Avshalom, Renate M. Houts, Daniel W. Belsky, Honalee Harrington, Sean Hogan, Sandhya Ramrakha, Richie Poulton, and Terrie E. Moffitt. “Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden.Nature Human Behaviour 1 (January 2016): 0005. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-016-0005.
Caspi A, Houts RM, Belsky DW, Harrington H, Hogan S, Ramrakha S, et al. Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden. Nature human behaviour. 2016 Jan;1:0005.
Caspi, Avshalom, et al. “Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden.Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 1, Jan. 2016, p. 0005. Epmc, doi:10.1038/s41562-016-0005.
Caspi A, Houts RM, Belsky DW, Harrington H, Hogan S, Ramrakha S, Poulton R, Moffitt TE. Childhood forecasting of a small segment of the population with large economic burden. Nature human behaviour. 2016 Jan;1:0005.

Published In

Nature human behaviour

DOI

EISSN

2397-3374

ISSN

2397-3374

Publication Date

January 2016

Volume

1

Start / End Page

0005

Related Subject Headings

  • 52 Psychology
  • 42 Health sciences
  • 32 Biomedical and clinical sciences