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Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model

Publication ,  Journal Article
Ansah, JP; Koh, V; Chiu, CT; Chei, CL; Zeng, Y; Yin, ZX; Shi, XM; Matchar, DB
Published in: System Dynamics Review
April 1, 2017

China is aging rapidly, and the number of Chinese elderly with dementia is expected to rise. This paper projects, up to year 2060, the number of Chinese elderly within four distinct cognitive states. A multi-state population model was developed using system dynamics and parametrized with age–gender-specific transition rates (between intact, mild, moderate and severe cognitive impairment and death) estimated from two waves (2012 and 2014) of a community-based cohort of elderly in China aged ≥65 years (N = 1824). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition rates. The number of elderly with any degree of cognitive impairment increases; with severe cognitive impairment increasing the most, at 698%. Among elderly with cognitive impairment, the proportion of very old elderly (age ≥ 80) is expected to rise from 53% to 78% by 2060. This will affect the demand for social and health services China. Copyright © 2017 System Dynamics Society.

Duke Scholars

Published In

System Dynamics Review

DOI

EISSN

1099-1727

ISSN

0883-7066

Publication Date

April 1, 2017

Volume

33

Issue

2

Start / End Page

89 / 111

Related Subject Headings

  • Business & Management
  • 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
  • 1503 Business and Management
 

Citation

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Ansah, J. P., Koh, V., Chiu, C. T., Chei, C. L., Zeng, Y., Yin, Z. X., … Matchar, D. B. (2017). Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model. System Dynamics Review, 33(2), 89–111. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1581
Ansah, J. P., V. Koh, C. T. Chiu, C. L. Chei, Y. Zeng, Z. X. Yin, X. M. Shi, and D. B. Matchar. “Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model.” System Dynamics Review 33, no. 2 (April 1, 2017): 89–111. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1581.
Ansah JP, Koh V, Chiu CT, Chei CL, Zeng Y, Yin ZX, et al. Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model. System Dynamics Review. 2017 Apr 1;33(2):89–111.
Ansah, J. P., et al. “Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model.” System Dynamics Review, vol. 33, no. 2, Apr. 2017, pp. 89–111. Scopus, doi:10.1002/sdr.1581.
Ansah JP, Koh V, Chiu CT, Chei CL, Zeng Y, Yin ZX, Shi XM, Matchar DB. Projecting the Number of Elderly with Cognitive Impairment in China Using a Multi-State Dynamic Population Model. System Dynamics Review. 2017 Apr 1;33(2):89–111.
Journal cover image

Published In

System Dynamics Review

DOI

EISSN

1099-1727

ISSN

0883-7066

Publication Date

April 1, 2017

Volume

33

Issue

2

Start / End Page

89 / 111

Related Subject Headings

  • Business & Management
  • 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour
  • 1503 Business and Management