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Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Stjern, CW; Samset, BH; Myhre, G; Forster, PM; Hodnebrog, Ø; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Iversen, T; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Olivié, D ...
Published in: Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR
November 2017

We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by 9 global coupled-climate models, producing a model-median effective radiative forcing (ERF) of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) Wm-2, and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 Wm-2 based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (-0.64 Wm-2 for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low-level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher-level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small global warming of 0.47 K per Wm-2 - about 20 % lower than the response to a doubling of CO2. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present-day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K.

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Published In

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

ISSN

2169-897X

Publication Date

November 2017

Volume

Volume 122

Issue

Iss 21

Start / End Page

11462 / 11481

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

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Stjern, C. W., Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, Ø., Andrews, T., … Voulgarakis, A. (2017). Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR, Volume 122(Iss 21), 11462–11481. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027326
Stjern, Camilla Weum, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Gunnar Myhre, Piers M. Forster, Øivind Hodnebrog, Timothy Andrews, Olivier Boucher, et al. “Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR Volume 122, no. Iss 21 (November 2017): 11462–81. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027326.
Stjern CW, Samset BH, Myhre G, Forster PM, Hodnebrog Ø, Andrews T, et al. Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. Journal of geophysical research Atmospheres : JGR. 2017 Nov;Volume 122(Iss 21):11462–81.
Stjern, Camilla Weum, et al. “Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations.Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR, vol. Volume 122, no. Iss 21, Nov. 2017, pp. 11462–81. Epmc, doi:10.1002/2017jd027326.
Stjern CW, Samset BH, Myhre G, Forster PM, Hodnebrog Ø, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Iversen T, Kasoar M, Kharin V, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque J-F, Olivié D, Richardson T, Shawki D, Shindell D, Smith CJ, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A. Rapid adjustments cause weak surface temperature response to increased black carbon concentrations. Journal of geophysical research Atmospheres : JGR. 2017 Nov;Volume 122(Iss 21):11462–11481.

Published In

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

ISSN

2169-897X

Publication Date

November 2017

Volume

Volume 122

Issue

Iss 21

Start / End Page

11462 / 11481

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences