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Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding

Publication ,  Journal Article
Richardson, TB; Forster, PM; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Hodnebrog, ; Kasoar, M; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, JF; Myhre, G ...
Published in: Journal of Climate
December 1, 2018

The response of the hydrological cycle to climate forcings can be understood within the atmospheric energy budget framework. In this study precipitation and energy budget responses to five forcing agents are analyzed using 10 climate models from the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Precipitation changes are split into a forcing-dependent fast response and a temperature-driven hydrological sensitivity. Globally, when normalized by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing, fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to strongly absorbing drivers (CO2, black carbon). However, over land fast precipitation changes are most sensitive to weakly absorbing drivers (sulfate, solar) and are linked to rapid circulation changes. Despite this, land-mean fast responses to CO2 and black carbon exhibit more intermodel spread. Globally, the hydrological sensitivity is consistent across forcings, mainly associated with increased longwave cooling, which is highly correlated with intermodel spread. The land-mean hydrological sensitivity is weaker, consistent with limited moisture availability. The PDRMIP results are used to construct a simple model for land-mean and sea-mean precipitation change based on sea surface temperature change and TOA forcing. The model matches well with CMIP5 ensemble mean historical and future projections, and is used to understand the contributions of different drivers. During the twentieth century, temperature-driven intensification of land-mean precipitation has been masked by fast precipitation responses to anthropogenic sulfate and volcanic forcing, consistent with the small observed trend. However, as projected sulfate forcing decreases, and warming continues, land-mean precipitation is expected to increase more rapidly, and may become clearly observable by the mid-twenty-first century.

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Published In

Journal of Climate

DOI

ISSN

0894-8755

Publication Date

December 1, 2018

Volume

31

Issue

23

Start / End Page

9641 / 9657

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0909 Geomatic Engineering
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

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Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., Faluvegi, G., Fläschner, D., … Voulgarakis, A. (2018). Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding. Journal of Climate, 31(23), 9641–9657. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1
Richardson, T. B., P. M. Forster, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, D. Fläschner, D. Hodnebrog, et al. “Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding.” Journal of Climate 31, no. 23 (December 1, 2018): 9641–57. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1.
Richardson TB, Forster PM, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, et al. Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding. Journal of Climate. 2018 Dec 1;31(23):9641–57.
Richardson, T. B., et al. “Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding.” Journal of Climate, vol. 31, no. 23, Dec. 2018, pp. 9641–57. Scopus, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0240.1.
Richardson TB, Forster PM, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Hodnebrog, Kasoar M, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque JF, Myhre G, Olivié D, Samset BH, Shawki D, Shindell D, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A. Drivers of precipitation change: An energetic understanding. Journal of Climate. 2018 Dec 1;31(23):9641–9657.

Published In

Journal of Climate

DOI

ISSN

0894-8755

Publication Date

December 1, 2018

Volume

31

Issue

23

Start / End Page

9641 / 9657

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0909 Geomatic Engineering
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences