Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score and EuroSCORE-2 Appropriately Assess 30-Day Postoperative Mortality in the STICH Trial and a Contemporary Cohort of Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction Undergoing Surgical Revascularization.

BACKGROUND: The STICH trial (Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure) demonstrated a survival benefit of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy and left ventricular dysfunction. The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score and the EuroSCORE-2 (ES2) are used for risk assessment in cardiac surgery, with little information available about their accuracy in patients with left ventricular dysfunction. We assessed the ability of the STS score and ES2 to evaluate 30-day postoperative mortality risk in STICH and a contemporary cohort (CC) of patients with a left ventricle ejection fraction ≤35% undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting outside of a trial setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: The STS and ES2 scores were calculated for 814 STICH patients and 1246 consecutive patients in a CC. There were marked variations in 30-day postoperative mortality risk from 1 patient to another. The STS scores consistently calculated lower risk scores than ES2 (1.5 versus 2.9 for the CC and 0.9 versus 2.4 for the STICH cohort), and underestimated postoperative mortality risk. The STS and ES2 scores had moderately good C statistics: CC (0.727, 95% CI: 0.650-0.803 for STS, and 0.707, 95% CI: 0.620-0.795 for ES2); STICH (0.744, 95% CI: 0.677-0.812, for STS and 0.736, 95% CI: 0.665-0.808 for ES2). Despite the CC patients having higher STS and ES2 scores than STICH patients, mortality (3.5%) was lower than that of STICH (4.8%), suggesting a possible decrease in postoperative mortality over the past decade. CONCLUSIONS: The 30-day postoperative mortality risk of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with left ventricular dysfunction varies markedly. Both the STS and ES2 score are effective in evaluating risk, although the STS score tend to underestimate risk. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00023595.

Duke Scholars

Author Peter Kent Smith Surgery, Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery

Author Hussein Rashid Al-Khalidi Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics