Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests
Publication
, Journal Article
Chikina, M; Frieze, A; Mattingly, JC; Pegden, W
Published in: Statistics and Public Policy
January 1, 2020
We give qualitative and quantitative improvements to theorems which enable significance testing in Markov chains, with a particular eye toward the goal of enabling strong, interpretable, and statistically rigorous claims of political gerrymandering. Our results can be used to demonstrate at a desired significance level that a given Markov chain state (e.g., a districting) is extremely unusual (rather than just atypical) with respect to the fragility of its characteristics in the chain. We also provide theorems specialized to leverage quantitative improvements when there is a product structure in the underlying probability space, as can occur due to geographical constraints on districtings.
Duke Scholars
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Published In
Statistics and Public Policy
DOI
EISSN
2330-443X
Publication Date
January 1, 2020
Volume
7
Issue
1
Start / End Page
101 / 114
Citation
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Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
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Chikina, M., Frieze, A., Mattingly, J. C., & Pegden, W. (2020). Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests. Statistics and Public Policy, 7(1), 101–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1806763
Chikina, M., A. Frieze, J. C. Mattingly, and W. Pegden. “Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests.” Statistics and Public Policy 7, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 101–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2020.1806763.
Chikina M, Frieze A, Mattingly JC, Pegden W. Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests. Statistics and Public Policy. 2020 Jan 1;7(1):101–14.
Chikina, M., et al. “Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests.” Statistics and Public Policy, vol. 7, no. 1, Jan. 2020, pp. 101–14. Scopus, doi:10.1080/2330443X.2020.1806763.
Chikina M, Frieze A, Mattingly JC, Pegden W. Separating Effect From Significance in Markov Chain Tests. Statistics and Public Policy. 2020 Jan 1;7(1):101–114.
Published In
Statistics and Public Policy
DOI
EISSN
2330-443X
Publication Date
January 1, 2020
Volume
7
Issue
1
Start / End Page
101 / 114