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Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Manoli, G; Fatichi, S; Schläpfer, M; Yu, K; Crowther, TW; Meili, N; Burlando, P; Katul, GG; Bou-Zeid, E
Published in: Nature
September 2019

Urban heat islands (UHIs) exacerbate the risk of heat-related mortality associated with global climate change. The intensity of UHIs varies with population size and mean annual precipitation, but a unifying explanation for this variation is lacking, and there are no geographically targeted guidelines for heat mitigation. Here we analyse summertime differences between urban and rural surface temperatures (ΔTs) worldwide and find a nonlinear increase in ΔTs with precipitation that is controlled by water or energy limitations on evapotranspiration and that modulates the scaling of ΔTs with city size. We introduce a coarse-grained model that links population, background climate, and UHI intensity, and show that urban-rural differences in evapotranspiration and convection efficiency are the main determinants of warming. The direct implication of these nonlinearities is that mitigation strategies aimed at increasing green cover and albedo are more efficient in dry regions, whereas the challenge of cooling tropical cities will require innovative solutions.

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Published In

Nature

DOI

EISSN

1476-4687

ISSN

0028-0836

Publication Date

September 2019

Volume

573

Issue

7772

Start / End Page

55 / 60

Related Subject Headings

  • Volatilization
  • Urban Population
  • Tropical Climate
  • Seasons
  • Rural Population
  • Rain
  • Plant Transpiration
  • Internationality
  • Humans
  • Hot Temperature
 

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Manoli, G., Fatichi, S., Schläpfer, M., Yu, K., Crowther, T. W., Meili, N., … Bou-Zeid, E. (2019). Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population. Nature, 573(7772), 55–60. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9
Manoli, Gabriele, Simone Fatichi, Markus Schläpfer, Kailiang Yu, Thomas W. Crowther, Naika Meili, Paolo Burlando, Gabriel G. Katul, and Elie Bou-Zeid. “Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.Nature 573, no. 7772 (September 2019): 55–60. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9.
Manoli G, Fatichi S, Schläpfer M, Yu K, Crowther TW, Meili N, et al. Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population. Nature. 2019 Sep;573(7772):55–60.
Manoli, Gabriele, et al. “Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population.Nature, vol. 573, no. 7772, Sept. 2019, pp. 55–60. Epmc, doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1512-9.
Manoli G, Fatichi S, Schläpfer M, Yu K, Crowther TW, Meili N, Burlando P, Katul GG, Bou-Zeid E. Magnitude of urban heat islands largely explained by climate and population. Nature. 2019 Sep;573(7772):55–60.
Journal cover image

Published In

Nature

DOI

EISSN

1476-4687

ISSN

0028-0836

Publication Date

September 2019

Volume

573

Issue

7772

Start / End Page

55 / 60

Related Subject Headings

  • Volatilization
  • Urban Population
  • Tropical Climate
  • Seasons
  • Rural Population
  • Rain
  • Plant Transpiration
  • Internationality
  • Humans
  • Hot Temperature