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Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Richardson, TB; Forster, PM; Smith, CJ; Maycock, AC; Wood, T; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Hodnebrog, Ø; Kasoar, M ...
Published in: Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR
December 2019

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real-world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy-induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

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Published In

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

ISSN

2169-897X

Publication Date

December 2019

Volume

124

Issue

23

Start / End Page

12824 / 12844

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

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Richardson, T. B., Forster, P. M., Smith, C. J., Maycock, A. C., Wood, T., Andrews, T., … Watson-Parris, D. (2019). Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models. Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR, 124(23), 12824–12844. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030581
Richardson, T. B., P. M. Forster, C. J. Smith, A. C. Maycock, T. Wood, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, et al. “Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR 124, no. 23 (December 2019): 12824–44. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030581.
Richardson TB, Forster PM, Smith CJ, Maycock AC, Wood T, Andrews T, et al. Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models. Journal of geophysical research Atmospheres : JGR. 2019 Dec;124(23):12824–44.
Richardson, T. B., et al. “Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR, vol. 124, no. 23, Dec. 2019, pp. 12824–44. Epmc, doi:10.1029/2019jd030581.
Richardson TB, Forster PM, Smith CJ, Maycock AC, Wood T, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Hodnebrog Ø, Kasoar M, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque J-F, Mülmenstädt J, Myhre G, Olivié D, Portmann RW, Samset BH, Shawki D, Shindell D, Stier P, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A, Watson-Parris D. Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models. Journal of geophysical research Atmospheres : JGR. 2019 Dec;124(23):12824–12844.

Published In

Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR

DOI

EISSN

2169-8996

ISSN

2169-897X

Publication Date

December 2019

Volume

124

Issue

23

Start / End Page

12824 / 12844

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences