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Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Brown, KE; Hottle, TA; Bandyopadhyay, R; Babaee, S; Dodder, RS; Kaplan, PO; Lenox, CS; Loughlin, DH
Published in: Environmental science & technology
July 2018

The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply scenario planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested that technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to the present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross-State Air-Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario-implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

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Published In

Environmental science & technology

DOI

EISSN

1520-5851

ISSN

0013-936X

Publication Date

July 2018

Volume

52

Issue

14

Start / End Page

8027 / 8038

Related Subject Headings

  • United States Environmental Protection Agency
  • United States
  • Uncertainty
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Air Pollution
  • Air Pollutants
 

Citation

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Brown, K. E., Hottle, T. A., Bandyopadhyay, R., Babaee, S., Dodder, R. S., Kaplan, P. O., … Loughlin, D. H. (2018). Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making. Environmental Science & Technology, 52(14), 8027–8038. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b00575
Brown, Kristen E., Troy A. Hottle, Rubenka Bandyopadhyay, Samaneh Babaee, Rebecca S. Dodder, P Ozge Kaplan, Carol S. Lenox, and Daniel H. Loughlin. “Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making.Environmental Science & Technology 52, no. 14 (July 2018): 8027–38. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b00575.
Brown KE, Hottle TA, Bandyopadhyay R, Babaee S, Dodder RS, Kaplan PO, et al. Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making. Environmental science & technology. 2018 Jul;52(14):8027–38.
Brown, Kristen E., et al. “Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making.Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 52, no. 14, July 2018, pp. 8027–38. Epmc, doi:10.1021/acs.est.8b00575.
Brown KE, Hottle TA, Bandyopadhyay R, Babaee S, Dodder RS, Kaplan PO, Lenox CS, Loughlin DH. Evolution of the United States Energy System and Related Emissions under Varying Social and Technological Development Paradigms: Plausible Scenarios for Use in Robust Decision Making. Environmental science & technology. 2018 Jul;52(14):8027–8038.
Journal cover image

Published In

Environmental science & technology

DOI

EISSN

1520-5851

ISSN

0013-936X

Publication Date

July 2018

Volume

52

Issue

14

Start / End Page

8027 / 8038

Related Subject Headings

  • United States Environmental Protection Agency
  • United States
  • Uncertainty
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Air Pollution
  • Air Pollutants