Skip to main content

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

Publication ,  Journal Article
Samset, BH; Myhre, G; Forster, PM; Hodnebrog, ; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A ...
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
December 1, 2018

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2–3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3–5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0–2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI

EISSN

2397-3722

Publication Date

December 1, 2018

Volume

1

Issue

1

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Samset, B. H., Myhre, G., Forster, P. M., Hodnebrog, ., Andrews, T., Boucher, O., … Voulgarakis, A. (2018). Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing. Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 1(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5
Samset, B. H., G. Myhre, P. M. Forster, P. M. Hodnebrog, T. Andrews, O. Boucher, G. Faluvegi, et al. “Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1, no. 1 (December 1, 2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5.
Samset BH, Myhre G, Forster PM, Hodnebrog, Andrews T, Boucher O, et al. Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2018 Dec 1;1(1).
Samset, B. H., et al. “Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing.” Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, vol. 1, no. 1, Dec. 2018. Scopus, doi:10.1038/s41612-017-0005-5.
Samset BH, Myhre G, Forster PM, Hodnebrog, Andrews T, Boucher O, Faluvegi G, Fläschner D, Kasoar M, Kharin V, Kirkevåg A, Lamarque JF, Olivié D, Richardson TB, Shindell D, Takemura T, Voulgarakis A. Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2018 Dec 1;1(1).

Published In

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

DOI

EISSN

2397-3722

Publication Date

December 1, 2018

Volume

1

Issue

1

Related Subject Headings

  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences