Social Disadvantage, Politics, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Trends: A County-level Analysis of United States Data.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is essential for public health control efforts. Social, demographic, and political characteristics at the United States (US) county level might be associated with changes in SARS-CoV-2 case incidence. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of the relationship between the change in reported SARS-CoV-2 case counts at the US county level during 1 June-30 June 2020 and social, demographic, and political characteristics of the county. RESULTS: Of 3142 US counties, 1023 were included in the analysis: 678 (66.3%) had increasing and 345 (33.7%) nonincreasing SARS-CoV-2 case counts between 1 June and 30 June 2020. In bivariate analysis, counties with increasing case counts had a significantly higher Social Deprivation Index (median, 48 [interquartile range {IQR}, 24-72]) than counties with nonincreasing case counts (median, 40 [IQR, 19-66]; P = .009). Counties with increasing case counts were significantly more likely to be metropolitan areas of 250 000-1 million population (P < .001), to have a higher percentage of black residents (9% vs 6%; P = .013), and to have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2016 by a ≥10-point margin (P = .044). In the multivariable model, metropolitan areas of 250 000-1 million population, higher percentage of black residents, and a ≥10-point Republican victory were independently associated with increasing case counts. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing case counts of SARS-CoV-2 in the US during June 2020 were associated with a combination of sociodemographic and political factors. Addressing social disadvantage and differential belief systems that may correspond with political alignment will play a critical role in pandemic control.

Duke Scholars

Author Ahmad Mourad  

Author Nicholas Turner Medicine, Infectious Diseases

Author Arthur Wakefield Baker Medicine, Infectious Diseases

Author Nwora Lance Okeke Medicine, Infectious Diseases

Author Gary Matthew Cox Medicine, Infectious Diseases

Author Jason Eric Stout Medicine, Infectious Diseases