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Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Pan, J; Yao, Y; Liu, Z; Meng, X; Ji, JS; Qiu, Y; Wang, W; Zhang, L; Wang, W; Kan, H
Published in: The Science of the total environment
January 2021

To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19.We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. We used a time-frequency approach to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions.Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also, relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p = 0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not change substantially.Meteorological conditions did not have statistically significant associations with the R0 of COVID-19. Warmer weather alone seems unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission.

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Published In

The Science of the total environment

DOI

EISSN

1879-1026

ISSN

0048-9697

Publication Date

January 2021

Volume

753

Start / End Page

142272

Related Subject Headings

  • Weather
  • Temperature
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Pneumonia, Viral
  • Pandemics
  • Humans
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Coronavirus Infections
  • China
  • COVID-19
 

Citation

APA
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ICMJE
MLA
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Pan, J., Yao, Y., Liu, Z., Meng, X., Ji, J. S., Qiu, Y., … Kan, H. (2021). Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries. The Science of the Total Environment, 753, 142272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142272
Pan, Jinhua, Ye Yao, Zhixi Liu, Xia Meng, John S. Ji, Yang Qiu, Weidong Wang, Lina Zhang, Weibing Wang, and Haidong Kan. “Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries.The Science of the Total Environment 753 (January 2021): 142272. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142272.
Pan J, Yao Y, Liu Z, Meng X, Ji JS, Qiu Y, et al. Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries. The Science of the total environment. 2021 Jan;753:142272.
Pan, Jinhua, et al. “Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries.The Science of the Total Environment, vol. 753, Jan. 2021, p. 142272. Epmc, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142272.
Pan J, Yao Y, Liu Z, Meng X, Ji JS, Qiu Y, Wang W, Zhang L, Kan H. Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries. The Science of the total environment. 2021 Jan;753:142272.
Journal cover image

Published In

The Science of the total environment

DOI

EISSN

1879-1026

ISSN

0048-9697

Publication Date

January 2021

Volume

753

Start / End Page

142272

Related Subject Headings

  • Weather
  • Temperature
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Pneumonia, Viral
  • Pandemics
  • Humans
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Coronavirus Infections
  • China
  • COVID-19