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Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton?

Publication ,  Journal Article
Potthoff, RF; Munger, MC
Published in: American Politics Research
November 1, 2021

Using thermometer score data from the ANES, we show that while there may have been no clear-cut Condorcet winner among the 2016 US presidential candidates, there appears to have been a Condorcet loser: Donald Trump. Thus the surprise is that the electorate preferred not only Hillary Clinton, but also the two “minor” candidates, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, to Trump. Another surprise is that Johnson may have been the Condorcet winner. A minimal normative standard for evaluating voting systems is advanced, privileging those systems that select Condorcet winners if one exists, and critiquing systems that allow the selection of Condorcet losers. A variety of voting mechanisms are evaluated using the 2016 thermometer scores: Condorcet voting, plurality, Borda, (single winner) Hare, Coombs, range voting, and approval voting. We conclude that the essential problem with the existing voting procedure—Electoral College runoff of primary winners of two major parties—is that it (demonstrably) allows the selection of a Condorcet loser.

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Published In

American Politics Research

DOI

EISSN

1552-3373

ISSN

1532-673X

Publication Date

November 1, 2021

Volume

49

Issue

6

Start / End Page

618 / 636

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science
 

Citation

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ICMJE
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Potthoff, R. F., & Munger, M. C. (2021). Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton? American Politics Research, 49(6), 618–636. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211009499
Potthoff, R. F., and M. C. Munger. “Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton?American Politics Research 49, no. 6 (November 1, 2021): 618–36. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211009499.
Potthoff RF, Munger MC. Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton? American Politics Research. 2021 Nov 1;49(6):618–36.
Potthoff, R. F., and M. C. Munger. “Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton?American Politics Research, vol. 49, no. 6, Nov. 2021, pp. 618–36. Scopus, doi:10.1177/1532673X211009499.
Potthoff RF, Munger MC. Condorcet Loser in 2016: Apparently Trump; Condorcet Winner: Not Clinton? American Politics Research. 2021 Nov 1;49(6):618–636.
Journal cover image

Published In

American Politics Research

DOI

EISSN

1552-3373

ISSN

1532-673X

Publication Date

November 1, 2021

Volume

49

Issue

6

Start / End Page

618 / 636

Related Subject Headings

  • Political Science & Public Administration
  • 4408 Political science
  • 1606 Political Science