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Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Suttles, KM; Singh, NK; Vose, JM; Martin, KL; Emanuel, RE; Coulston, JW; Saia, SM; Crump, MT
Published in: The Science of the total environment
December 2018

This study assessed the combined effects of increased urbanization and climate change on streamflow in the Yadkin-Pee Dee watershed (North Carolina, USA) and focused on the conversion from forest to urban land use, the primary land use transition occurring in the watershed. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate future (2050-2070) streamflow and baseflow for four combined climate and land use scenarios across the Yadkin-Pee Dee River watershed and three subwatersheds. The combined scenarios pair land use change and climate change scenarios together. Compared to the baseline, projected streamflow increased in three out of four combined scenarios and decreased in one combined scenario. Baseflow decreased in all combined scenarios, but decreases were largest in subwatersheds that lost the most forest. The effects of land use change and climate change were additive, amplifying the increases in runoff and decreases in baseflow. Streamflow was influenced more strongly by climate change than land use change. However, for baseflow the reverse was true; land use change tended to drive baseflow more than climate change. Land use change was also a stronger driver than climate in the most urban subwatershed. In the most extreme land use and climate projection the volume of the 1-day, 100 year flood nearly doubled at the watershed outlet. Our results underscore the importance of forests as hydrologic regulators buffering streamflow and baseflow from hydrologic extremes. Additionally, our results suggest that land managers and policy makers need to consider the implications of forest loss on streamflow and baseflow when planning for future urbanization and climate change adaptation options.

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Published In

The Science of the total environment

DOI

EISSN

1879-1026

ISSN

0048-9697

Publication Date

December 2018

Volume

645

Start / End Page

806 / 816

Related Subject Headings

  • Environmental Sciences
 

Citation

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Suttles, K. M., Singh, N. K., Vose, J. M., Martin, K. L., Emanuel, R. E., Coulston, J. W., … Crump, M. T. (2018). Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S. The Science of the Total Environment, 645, 806–816. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287
Suttles, Kelly M., Nitin K. Singh, James M. Vose, Katherine L. Martin, Ryan E. Emanuel, John W. Coulston, Sheila M. Saia, and Michael T. Crump. “Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.The Science of the Total Environment 645 (December 2018): 806–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287.
Suttles KM, Singh NK, Vose JM, Martin KL, Emanuel RE, Coulston JW, et al. Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S. The Science of the total environment. 2018 Dec;645:806–16.
Suttles, Kelly M., et al. “Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S.The Science of the Total Environment, vol. 645, Dec. 2018, pp. 806–16. Epmc, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.287.
Suttles KM, Singh NK, Vose JM, Martin KL, Emanuel RE, Coulston JW, Saia SM, Crump MT. Assessment of hydrologic vulnerability to urbanization and climate change in a rapidly changing watershed in the Southeast U.S. The Science of the total environment. 2018 Dec;645:806–816.
Journal cover image

Published In

The Science of the total environment

DOI

EISSN

1879-1026

ISSN

0048-9697

Publication Date

December 2018

Volume

645

Start / End Page

806 / 816

Related Subject Headings

  • Environmental Sciences