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On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery

Publication ,  Journal Article
Binette, O; Steorts, RC
Published in: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society
April 1, 2022

The quantification of modern slavery has received increased attention recently as organizations have come together to produce global estimates, where multiple systems estimation (MSE) is often used to this end. Echoing a long-standing controversy, disagreements have re-surfaced regarding the underlying MSE assumptions, the robustness of MSE methodology and the accuracy of MSE estimates in this application. Our goal was to help address and move past these controversies. To do so, we review MSE, its assumptions, and commonly used models for modern slavery applications. We introduce all of the publicly available modern slavery datasets in the literature, providing a reproducible analysis and highlighting current issues. Specifically, we utilize an internal consistency approach that constructs subsets of data for which ground truth is available, allowing us to evaluate the accuracy of MSE estimators. Next, we propose a characterization of the large sample bias of estimators as a function of misspecified assumptions. Then, we propose an alternative to traditional (e.g. bootstrap-based) assessments of reliability, which allows us to visualize trajectories of MSE estimates to illustrate the robustness of estimates. Finally, our complementary analyses are used to provide guidance regarding the application and reliability of MSE methodology.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

DOI

EISSN

1467-985X

ISSN

0964-1998

Publication Date

April 1, 2022

Volume

185

Issue

2

Start / End Page

640 / 676

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

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Binette, O., & Steorts, R. C. (2022). On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, 185(2), 640–676. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12803
Binette, O., and R. C. Steorts. “On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society 185, no. 2 (April 1, 2022): 640–76. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12803.
Binette O, Steorts RC. On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 2022 Apr 1;185(2):640–76.
Binette, O., and R. C. Steorts. “On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society, vol. 185, no. 2, Apr. 2022, pp. 640–76. Scopus, doi:10.1111/rssa.12803.
Binette O, Steorts RC. On the reliability of multiple systems estimation for the quantification of modern slavery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society. 2022 Apr 1;185(2):640–676.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

DOI

EISSN

1467-985X

ISSN

0964-1998

Publication Date

April 1, 2022

Volume

185

Issue

2

Start / End Page

640 / 676

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics