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Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation

Publication ,  Journal Article
Li, L; Lozier, MS; Li, F
Published in: Climate Dynamics
May 1, 2022

A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century−1 during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess.

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Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

May 1, 2022

Volume

58

Issue

9-10

Start / End Page

2249 / 2267

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

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Li, L., Lozier, M. S., & Li, F. (2022). Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation. Climate Dynamics, 58(9–10), 2249–2267. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4
Li, L., M. S. Lozier, and F. Li. “Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation.” Climate Dynamics 58, no. 9–10 (May 1, 2022): 2249–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4.
Li L, Lozier MS, Li F. Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation. Climate Dynamics. 2022 May 1;58(9–10):2249–67.
Li, L., et al. “Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation.” Climate Dynamics, vol. 58, no. 9–10, May 2022, pp. 2249–67. Scopus, doi:10.1007/s00382-021-06003-4.
Li L, Lozier MS, Li F. Century-long cooling trend in subpolar North Atlantic forced by atmosphere: an alternative explanation. Climate Dynamics. 2022 May 1;58(9–10):2249–2267.
Journal cover image

Published In

Climate Dynamics

DOI

EISSN

1432-0894

ISSN

0930-7575

Publication Date

May 1, 2022

Volume

58

Issue

9-10

Start / End Page

2249 / 2267

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
  • 3708 Oceanography
  • 3702 Climate change science
  • 3701 Atmospheric sciences
  • 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience
  • 0405 Oceanography
  • 0401 Atmospheric Sciences