Contribution of Thunderstorms to Changes in Hourly Extreme Precipitation over China from 1980 to 2011
In many countries, thunderstorms are the main contributor to hourly extreme precipitation (HEP). Prior studies have shown that the number of thunderstorms decreased steadily in whole country of China; however, HEP has increased significantly in several areas over the past half-century. The role of thunderstorms in changes in HEP occurrence remains largely unknown in China. In this study, for the first time, we used continuous 32-yr records of hourly precipitation and thunder, and the fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5), to analyze changes in thunderstorms under various vertical wind shear (VWS) environments, and their contribution to HEP occurrence. The number of HEP events associated with thunderstorms (TD-HEP) increased significantly in southern China (SC) but decreased significantly in northeastern China (NEC) and east of the Tibetan Plateau (ETP). Weak VWS thunderstorms accounted for 69.1% of TD-HEP in SC. Changes in the most unstable convective available potential energy and precipitable water (PW) in SC favored an increase in weak-VWS thunderstorms, which resulted in an increase of 2.35 h per warm season in overall "station-mean" TD-HEP events from 1980 to 2011. As the major contributor to HEP in NEC, moderate VWS thunderstorms decreased by 0.37 h per warm season, due mainly to a reduction in PW, leading to a negative trend in TD-HEP events. Similarly, the decreasing TD-HEP occurrence on the ETP was due to a decrease of 1.12 h per warm season of moderate VWS thunderstorms. Studying the VWS environments of thunderstorms, and changes therein under a warming climate, can improve understanding of the changes in HEP in China.
Duke Scholars
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- Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
- 3708 Oceanography
- 3702 Climate change science
- 3701 Atmospheric sciences
- 0909 Geomatic Engineering
- 0405 Oceanography
- 0401 Atmospheric Sciences
Citation
Published In
DOI
EISSN
ISSN
Publication Date
Volume
Issue
Start / End Page
Related Subject Headings
- Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
- 3708 Oceanography
- 3702 Climate change science
- 3701 Atmospheric sciences
- 0909 Geomatic Engineering
- 0405 Oceanography
- 0401 Atmospheric Sciences