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Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Dryer, RA; Salem, A; Saroha, V; Greenberg, RG; Rysavy, MA; Chawla, S; Patel, RM
Published in: J Perinatol
December 2022

OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation of a publicly available model predicting extubation success in very preterm infants. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective study of infants born <1250 g at a single center. Model performance evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and comparing observed and expected probabilities of extubation success, defined as survival ≥5 d without an endotracheal tube. RESULTS: Of 177 infants, 120 (68%) were extubated successfully. The median (IQR) gestational age was 27 weeks (25-28) and weight at extubation was 915 g (755-1050). The model had acceptable discrimination (AUROC 0.72 [95% CI 0.65-0.80]) and adequate calibration (calibration slope 0.96, intercept -0.06, mean observed-to-expected difference in probability of extubation success -0.08 [95% CI -0.01, -0.15]). CONCLUSIONS: The extubation success prediction model has acceptable performance in an external cohort. Additional prospective studies are needed to determine if the model can be improved or how it can be used for clinical benefit.

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Published In

J Perinatol

DOI

EISSN

1476-5543

Publication Date

December 2022

Volume

42

Issue

12

Start / End Page

1674 / 1679

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Retrospective Studies
  • Pediatrics
  • Infant, Very Low Birth Weight
  • Infant, Premature, Diseases
  • Infant, Premature
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Gestational Age
  • Airway Extubation
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
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Dryer, R. A., Salem, A., Saroha, V., Greenberg, R. G., Rysavy, M. A., Chawla, S., & Patel, R. M. (2022). Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants. J Perinatol, 42(12), 1674–1679. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41372-022-01517-z
Dryer, Rebecca A., Anand Salem, Vivek Saroha, Rachel G. Greenberg, Matthew A. Rysavy, Sanjay Chawla, and Ravi M. Patel. “Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants.J Perinatol 42, no. 12 (December 2022): 1674–79. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41372-022-01517-z.
Dryer RA, Salem A, Saroha V, Greenberg RG, Rysavy MA, Chawla S, et al. Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants. J Perinatol. 2022 Dec;42(12):1674–9.
Dryer, Rebecca A., et al. “Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants.J Perinatol, vol. 42, no. 12, Dec. 2022, pp. 1674–79. Pubmed, doi:10.1038/s41372-022-01517-z.
Dryer RA, Salem A, Saroha V, Greenberg RG, Rysavy MA, Chawla S, Patel RM. Evaluation and validation of a prediction model for extubation success in very preterm infants. J Perinatol. 2022 Dec;42(12):1674–1679.

Published In

J Perinatol

DOI

EISSN

1476-5543

Publication Date

December 2022

Volume

42

Issue

12

Start / End Page

1674 / 1679

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Retrospective Studies
  • Pediatrics
  • Infant, Very Low Birth Weight
  • Infant, Premature, Diseases
  • Infant, Premature
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Gestational Age
  • Airway Extubation