Skip to main content
Journal cover image

Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium

Publication ,  Journal Article
Amrhein, DE; Hakim, GJ; Parsons, LA
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
November 28, 2020

Paleoclimate reconstruction relies on estimates of spatiotemporal relationships among climate quantities to interpolate between proxy data. This work quantifies how structural uncertainties in those relationships translate to uncertainties in reconstructions of past climate. We develop and apply a data assimilation uncertainty quantification approach to paleoclimate networks and observational uncertainties representative of data for the last millennium. We find that structural uncertainties arising from uncertain spatial covariance relationships typically contribute 10% of the total uncertainty in reconstructed temperature variability at small (∼200 km), continental, and hemispheric length scales, with larger errors (50% or larger) in regions where long-range climate covariances are least certain. These structural uncertainties contribute far more to errors in uncertainty quantification, sometimes by a factor of 5 or higher. Accounting for and reducing uncertainties in climate model dynamics and resulting covariance relationships will improve paleoclimate reconstruction accuracy.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

Geophysical Research Letters

DOI

EISSN

1944-8007

ISSN

0094-8276

Publication Date

November 28, 2020

Volume

47

Issue

22

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Amrhein, D. E., Hakim, G. J., & Parsons, L. A. (2020). Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(22). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090485
Amrhein, D. E., G. J. Hakim, and L. A. Parsons. “Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium.” Geophysical Research Letters 47, no. 22 (November 28, 2020). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090485.
Amrhein DE, Hakim GJ, Parsons LA. Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium. Geophysical Research Letters. 2020 Nov 28;47(22).
Amrhein, D. E., et al. “Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium.” Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, no. 22, Nov. 2020. Scopus, doi:10.1029/2020GL090485.
Amrhein DE, Hakim GJ, Parsons LA. Quantifying Structural Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Data Assimilation With an Application to the Last Millennium. Geophysical Research Letters. 2020 Nov 28;47(22).
Journal cover image

Published In

Geophysical Research Letters

DOI

EISSN

1944-8007

ISSN

0094-8276

Publication Date

November 28, 2020

Volume

47

Issue

22

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences