Tight spatial coupling of a marine predator with soniferous fishes: Using joint modelling to aid in ecosystem approaches to management

Aim: Understanding the distribution of marine organisms is essential for effective management of highly mobile marine predators that face a variety of anthropogenic threats. Recent work has largely focused on modelling the distribution and abundance of marine mammals in relation to a suite of environmental variables. However, biotic interactions can largely drive distributions of these predators. We aim to identify how biotic and abiotic variables influence the distribution and abundance of a particular marine predator, the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus), using multiple modelling approaches and conducting an extensive literature review. Location: Western North Atlantic continental shelf. Methods: We combined widespread marine mammal and fish and invertebrate surveys in an ensemble modelling approach to assess the relative importance and capacity of the environment and other marine species to predict the distribution of both coastal and offshore bottlenose dolphin ecotypes. We corroborate the modelled results with a systematic literature review on the prey of dolphins throughout the region to help explain patterns driven by prey availability, as well as reveal new ones that may not necessarily be a predator–prey relationship. Results: We find that coastal bottlenose dolphin distributions are associated with one family of fishes, the Sciaenidae, or drum family, and predictions slightly improve when using only fish versus only environmental variables. The literature review suggests that this tight coupling is likely a predator–prey relationship. Comparatively, offshore dolphin distributions are more strongly related to environmental variables, and predictions are better for environmental-only models. As revealed by the literature review, this may be due to a mismatch between the animals caught in the fish and invertebrate surveys and the predominant prey of offshore dolphins, notably squid. Main Conclusions: Incorporating prey species into distribution models, especially for coastal bottlenose dolphins, can help inform ecological relationships and predict marine predator distributions.

Duke Scholars

Author Andrew J Read Marine Science and Conservation

Author Patrick N. Halpin Marine Science and Conservation

Author Ann-Marie Jacoby