Air Quality, Health, and Equity Benefits of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air Pathways in China.

In the pursuit of carbon neutrality, China's 2060 targets have been largely anchored in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with less emphasis on the consequential benefits for air quality and public health. This study pivots to this critical nexus, exploring how China's carbon neutrality aligns with the World Health Organization's air quality guidelines (WHO AQG) regarding fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure. Coupling a technology-rich integrated assessment model, an emission-concentration response surface model, and exposure and health assessment, we find that decarbonization reduces sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), and PM_2.5 emissions by more than 90%; reduces nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) by more than 50%; and simultaneously reduces the disparities across regions. Critically, our analysis reveals that further targeted reductions in air pollutants, notably NH₃ and non-energy-related NMVOCs, could bring most Chinese cities into attainment of WHO AQG for PM_2.5 5 to 10 years earlier than the pathway focused solely on carbon neutrality. Thus, the integration of air pollution control measures into carbon neutrality strategies will present a significant opportunity for China to attain health and environmental equality.

Duke Scholars

Author Daniel Loughlin Earth and Climate Sciences