Macro-Experimental Economics in the Kyrgyz Republic: Social Security Sustainability and

Despite a decade of transition, pension systems in formerly socialist countries still desperately need viable reform. This paper assesses reform packages advocated by different international agencies, and considers their sensitivity to varying economic and demographic assumptions. Failure to account for demographic-economic interactions strongly biases forecasts. Few viable reform options exist, due to the near absence of capital markets, the collapse of formal sector employment, and huge differences between urban and rural sectors. The divergent results from projections made under different assumptions imply that policymakers should examine the realism of policy suggestions (and associated actuarial forecasts) very carefully.

Duke Scholars

Author Charles Maxwell Becker Economics