Estimating the mean function of a Gaussian process and the Stein effect

The problem of global estimation of the mean function θ(·) of a quite arbitrary Gaussian process is considered. The loss function in estimating θ by a function a(·) is assumed to be of the form L(θ, a) = ∫ [θ(t) - a(t)]2μ(dt), and estimators are evaluated in terms of their risk function (expected loss). The usual minimax estimator of θ is shown to be inadmissible via the Stein phenomenon; in estimating the function θ we are trying to simultaneously estimate a larger number of normal means. Estimators improving upon the usual minimax estimator are constructed, including an estimator which allows the incorporation of prior information about θ. The analysis is carried out by using a version of the Karhunen-Loéve expansion to represent the original problem as the problem of estimating a countably infinite sequence of means from independent normal distributions. © 1983.

Duke Scholars

Author James O. Berger Statistical Science

Author Robert L. Wolpert Statistical Science