POLLUTANT RUNOFF MODELS: SELECTION AND USE IN DECISION MAKING

Models for pollutant runoff can be useful in water quality management planning if appropriately structured for the problem at hand. Accordingly, a “top‐down” approach is proposed for the examination of extant pollutant runoff models. The approach consists of the identification of objectives and attributes that reflect the needs of planners and decision makers when these models are used for water quality management planning. Ideally, the attributes should concern the effect of model information on improved decision making and the cost of model application. Practical difficulties with the first attribute necessitates substitution of surrogate attributes reflecting model appropriateness, resolution, and uncertainty. Common pollutant runoff models, in particular export coefficients and hydrology‐driven simulation models, are found to have serious weaknesses on some of the attribute scales. The “top‐down” approach leads to a set of desirable pollutant runoff model attributes; alternate modeling techniques are thus examined in order to identify promising future directions for model development. The focus of this examination is phosphorus, due to its importance in the eutrophication of surface waters. Models for both sediment‐attached and dissolved phosphorus are considered. Among the conclusions is the belief that the partial contributing area concept can yield an effective yet simple simulation despite the variable and complex nature of runoff. Copyright © 1985, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved

Duke Scholars

Author Kenneth H. Reckhow Environmental Sciences and Policy