Modelling the spread of HIV/AIDS in China: the role of sexual transmission.

The study presented here is an exploration of the implications of patterns of sexual behaviour for the spread of HIV in China, using a bio-behavioural macrosimulation model. To reflect the uncertainty surrounding key parameters, analyses of varied scenarios are used to show a range of possible outcomes consistent with variations in selected biological and behavioural inputs. The latter are estimated from a nationwide survey of sexual behaviour recently conducted in China, a country with an emerging HIV/AIDS epidemic, where it is feared that HIV/AIDS will spread to the general population via heterosexual transmission. The results highlight the primacy of the levels and distribution of sexual activity in the population. They offer some guidelines for understanding and interpreting the potential implications of current and prospective changes in sexual behaviour for the spread of HIV/AIDS in the world's largest population, and also highlight the need to collect better data on sexual behaviour for the estimation of key model inputs.

Duke Scholars

Author M. Giovanna Merli Sanford School of Public Policy