Skip to main content
Journal cover image

Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India

Publication ,  Journal Article
Auffhammer, M; Ramanathan, V; Vincent, JR
Published in: Climatic Change
March 1, 2012

Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country's wet-season (kharif) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966-2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1. 7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966-2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India's hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

Climatic Change

DOI

ISSN

0165-0009

Publication Date

March 1, 2012

Volume

111

Issue

2

Start / End Page

411 / 424

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Auffhammer, M., Ramanathan, V., & Vincent, J. R. (2012). Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India. Climatic Change, 111(2), 411–424. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0208-4
Auffhammer, M., V. Ramanathan, and J. R. Vincent. “Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India.” Climatic Change 111, no. 2 (March 1, 2012): 411–24. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0208-4.
Auffhammer M, Ramanathan V, Vincent JR. Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India. Climatic Change. 2012 Mar 1;111(2):411–24.
Auffhammer, M., et al. “Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India.” Climatic Change, vol. 111, no. 2, Mar. 2012, pp. 411–24. Scopus, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0208-4.
Auffhammer M, Ramanathan V, Vincent JR. Climate change, the monsoon, and rice yield in India. Climatic Change. 2012 Mar 1;111(2):411–424.
Journal cover image

Published In

Climatic Change

DOI

ISSN

0165-0009

Publication Date

March 1, 2012

Volume

111

Issue

2

Start / End Page

411 / 424

Related Subject Headings

  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences