The effect of macroeconomic news on beliefs and preferences: Evidence from the options market
We examine the effect of regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements on the beliefs and preferences of participants in the U.S. Treasury market by comparing the option-implied state-price densities (SPDs) of bond prices shortly before and after the announcements. We find that the announcements reduce the uncertainty implicit in the second moment of the SPD regardless of the content of the news. The changes in the higher-order moments, in contrast, depend on whether the news is good or bad for economic prospects. We explore three alternative explanations for our empirical findings: relative mispricing, changes in beliefs, and changes in preferences. We find that our results are consistent with time-varying risk aversion. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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- Economics
- 3803 Economic theory
- 3801 Applied economics
- 3502 Banking, finance and investment
- 1403 Econometrics
- 1402 Applied Economics
- 1401 Economic Theory
Citation
Published In
DOI
ISSN
Publication Date
Volume
Issue
Start / End Page
Related Subject Headings
- Economics
- 3803 Economic theory
- 3801 Applied economics
- 3502 Banking, finance and investment
- 1403 Econometrics
- 1402 Applied Economics
- 1401 Economic Theory