The expected value of frequency calibration
Publication
, Journal Article
Clemen, RT; Murphy, AH
Published in: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
January 1, 1990
It is possible to calibrate subjective probabilites using relative frequency information pertaining to a probability assessor's past performance. This procedure is known as frequency calibration and can be used to improve the quality of assessed probabilities. We develop a conceptual model of the probability assessment process and, on the basis of this model, show how to calculate the expected value of frequency calibration (EVFC) using standard Bayesian preposterior analysis. U.S. National Weather Service precipitation probability forecasts are used to illustrate the calculation of EVFC in the contexts of scoring rules and the familiar umbrella problem. © 1990.
Duke Scholars
Published In
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
DOI
ISSN
0749-5978
Publication Date
January 1, 1990
Volume
46
Issue
1
Start / End Page
102 / 117
Related Subject Headings
- Social Psychology
- 52 Psychology
- 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
- 17 Psychology and Cognitive Sciences
- 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Citation
APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Clemen, R. T., & Murphy, A. H. (1990). The expected value of frequency calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 46(1), 102–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(90)90024-4
Clemen, R. T., and A. H. Murphy. “The expected value of frequency calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 46, no. 1 (January 1, 1990): 102–17. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(90)90024-4.
Clemen RT, Murphy AH. The expected value of frequency calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1990 Jan 1;46(1):102–17.
Clemen, R. T., and A. H. Murphy. “The expected value of frequency calibration.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol. 46, no. 1, Jan. 1990, pp. 102–17. Scopus, doi:10.1016/0749-5978(90)90024-4.
Clemen RT, Murphy AH. The expected value of frequency calibration. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 1990 Jan 1;46(1):102–117.
Published In
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
DOI
ISSN
0749-5978
Publication Date
January 1, 1990
Volume
46
Issue
1
Start / End Page
102 / 117
Related Subject Headings
- Social Psychology
- 52 Psychology
- 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
- 17 Psychology and Cognitive Sciences
- 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services