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Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility

Publication ,  Journal Article
Dunson, DB; Colombo, B
Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association
March 1, 2003

Cervical mucus hydration increases during the fertile interval before ovulation. Because sperm can only penetrate mucus having a high water content, cervical secretions provide a reliable marker of the fertile days of the menstrual cycle. This article develops a Bayesian approach for modeling of daily observations of cervical mucus and applies the approach to assess heterogeneity among women and cycles from a given woman with respect to the increase in mucus hydration during the fertile interval. The proposed model relates the mucus observations to an underlying normal mucus hydration score, which varies relative to a peak hydration day. Uncertainty in the timing of the peak is accounted for, and a novel weighted mixture model is used to characterize heterogeneity in distinct features of the underlying mean function. Prior information on the mucus hydration trajectory is incorporated, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is developed. Based on data from a study of daily fecundability, there appears to be substantial heterogeneity among women in detected preovulatory increases in mucus hydration, but only minimal differences among cycles from a given woman.

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Published In

Journal of the American Statistical Association

DOI

ISSN

0162-1459

Publication Date

March 1, 2003

Volume

98

Issue

461

Start / End Page

28 / 37

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

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Dunson, D. B., & Colombo, B. (2003). Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98(461), 28–37. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214503388619067
Dunson, D. B., and B. Colombo. “Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 98, no. 461 (March 1, 2003): 28–37. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214503388619067.
Dunson DB, Colombo B. Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2003 Mar 1;98(461):28–37.
Dunson, D. B., and B. Colombo. “Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 98, no. 461, Mar. 2003, pp. 28–37. Scopus, doi:10.1198/016214503388619067.
Dunson DB, Colombo B. Bayesian modeling of markers of day-specific fertility. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 2003 Mar 1;98(461):28–37.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of the American Statistical Association

DOI

ISSN

0162-1459

Publication Date

March 1, 2003

Volume

98

Issue

461

Start / End Page

28 / 37

Related Subject Headings

  • Statistics & Probability
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1603 Demography
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics