Clinical correlates of long-term mortality after percutaneous interventions of saphenous vein grafts.

BACKGROUND: Increasing number of patients undergo percutaneous intervention of saphenous vein grafts (SVGs). However, the clinical factors associated with long-term mortality after SVG interventions are currently less known. Accordingly, the goal of present study was to evaluate clinical correlates of long-term mortality and to develop a simple bedside tool for risk stratification in patients undergoing SVG interventions. METHODS: We analyzed 1019 patients undergoing SVG interventions from the Duke Cardiovascular Disease Database (1986-2003). Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify baseline variables associated with long-term mortality, and the model variables were then used to construct a nomogram for survival probability at 4 years. RESULTS: At a median follow-up of 4 years, 24% of those undergoing SVG interventions died (interquartile range 2-7 years). Independent correlates of death at follow-up on multivariable analysis included presenting heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.03), diabetes (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.37-2.18), presenting heart failure (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.06), age (per 10-year increase, HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.46), peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.23-2.04), renal insufficiency (HR 2.01, 95% CI 1.36-2.97), patent internal mammary graft (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.53-0.86), body mass index < or = 25 kg/m2 (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.97), carotid bruit (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.12-1.85), S3 ventricular gallop (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.11-3.03), and hypertension (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.04-1.83) (c-index 0.83). Bootstrap validation confirmed excellent internal validity of the model (mean c-index 0.84, 95% CI 0.80-0.85). CONCLUSION: Long-term survival after SVG intervention is poor, with one fourth of patients dying at median follow-up of 4 years. The nomogram developed using the model variables provides a method for clinicians to advise patients undergoing SVG interventions regarding their long-term prognosis, thereby enhancing discharge and long-term follow-up planning and setting up of realistic expectations.

Duke Scholars

Author Rajendra H. Mehta Medicine, Cardiology

Author Donald D. Glower Jr. Surgery, Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery

Author Michael Hugh Sketch Jr. Medicine, Cardiology