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When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution

Publication ,  Journal Article
Morris, MW; Larrick, RP
Published in: Psychological Review
January 1, 1995

The question of whether lay attributors are biased in their discounting of 1 cause given an alternative cause has not been resolved by decades of research, largely due to the lack of a clear standard for the rational amount of discounting. The authors propose a normative model in which the attributor's causal schemas and discounting inferences are represented in terms of subjective probability. The analysis examines Kelley's (1972b) proposed causal schemas and then other schemas for multiple causes (varying in assumptions about prior probability, sufficiency, correlation, and number of causes) to determine when discounting is rational. It reveals that discounting is implied from most, but not all, possible causal schemas, albeit at varying amounts. Hence, certain patterns of discounting previously interpreted as biases may, in fact, reflect coherent inferences from causal schemas. Results of 2 studies, which measured causal assumptions and inferences, support this interpretation.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Psychological Review

ISSN

0033-295X

Publication Date

January 1, 1995

Volume

102

Issue

2

Start / End Page

331 / 355

Related Subject Headings

  • Experimental Psychology
  • 52 Psychology
  • 1702 Cognitive Sciences
  • 1701 Psychology
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Morris, M. W., & Larrick, R. P. (1995). When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution. Psychological Review, 102(2), 331–355.
Morris, M. W., and R. P. Larrick. “When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution.” Psychological Review 102, no. 2 (January 1, 1995): 331–55.
Morris MW, Larrick RP. When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution. Psychological Review. 1995 Jan 1;102(2):331–55.
Morris, M. W., and R. P. Larrick. “When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution.” Psychological Review, vol. 102, no. 2, Jan. 1995, pp. 331–55.
Morris MW, Larrick RP. When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution. Psychological Review. 1995 Jan 1;102(2):331–355.

Published In

Psychological Review

ISSN

0033-295X

Publication Date

January 1, 1995

Volume

102

Issue

2

Start / End Page

331 / 355

Related Subject Headings

  • Experimental Psychology
  • 52 Psychology
  • 1702 Cognitive Sciences
  • 1701 Psychology