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Problems in detecting chaotic behavior in natural populations by fitting simple discrete models

Publication ,  Journal Article
Morris, WF
Published in: Ecology
January 1, 1990

In order to predict the long-term qualitative dynamics of natural populations with discrete generations, ecologists have used short-term field data to estimate the parameters of simple difference-equation models whose behaviors are then examined. Three problems complicate the model-fitting approach: 1) the parameter estimates, and hence the predicted dynamics, may be sensitive to the estimation procedure used; 2) different models may fit the data equivalently well and yet make different predictions about population behavior; and 3) even when the best-fit parameters are used, a simple model may fail to capture the observed dynamics of the field population. These problems are illustrated using data from published insect life-table studies (Bupalus piniarius, Cyzenis albicans, Delia coarctata, Operophtera brumata). Inferences about the presence or absence of chaos in natural insect populations that rely on simple best-fit models are premature. -from Author

Duke Scholars

Published In

Ecology

DOI

ISSN

0012-9658

Publication Date

January 1, 1990

Volume

71

Issue

5

Start / End Page

1849 / 1862

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3109 Zoology
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0603 Evolutionary Biology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0501 Ecological Applications
 

Citation

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Morris, W. F. (1990). Problems in detecting chaotic behavior in natural populations by fitting simple discrete models. Ecology, 71(5), 1849–1862. https://doi.org/10.2307/1937593
Morris, W. F. “Problems in detecting chaotic behavior in natural populations by fitting simple discrete models.” Ecology 71, no. 5 (January 1, 1990): 1849–62. https://doi.org/10.2307/1937593.
Morris, W. F. “Problems in detecting chaotic behavior in natural populations by fitting simple discrete models.” Ecology, vol. 71, no. 5, Jan. 1990, pp. 1849–62. Scopus, doi:10.2307/1937593.
Journal cover image

Published In

Ecology

DOI

ISSN

0012-9658

Publication Date

January 1, 1990

Volume

71

Issue

5

Start / End Page

1849 / 1862

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
  • 4102 Ecological applications
  • 3109 Zoology
  • 3103 Ecology
  • 0603 Evolutionary Biology
  • 0602 Ecology
  • 0501 Ecological Applications