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Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved

Publication ,  Journal Article
Soll, JB; Mannes, AE
Published in: International Journal of Forecasting
January 1, 2011

We report the results of a novel experiment that addresses two unresolved questions in the judgmental forecasting literature. First, how does combining the estimates of others differ from revising one's own estimate based on the judgment of another? The experiment found that participants often ignored advice when revising an estimate but averaged estimates when combining. This was true despite receiving identical feedback about the accuracy of past judgments. Second, why do people consistently tend to overweight their own opinions at the expense of profitable advice? We compared two prominent explanations for this, differential access to reasons and egocentric beliefs, and found that neither adequately accounts for the overweighting of the self. Finally, echoing past research, we find that averaging opinions is often advantageous, but that choosing a single judge can perform well in certain predictable situations. © 2010 International Institute of Forecasters.

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Published In

International Journal of Forecasting

DOI

ISSN

0169-2070

Publication Date

January 1, 2011

Volume

27

Issue

1

Start / End Page

81 / 102

Related Subject Headings

  • Econometrics
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics
 

Citation

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Soll, J. B., & Mannes, A. E. (2011). Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), 81–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.003
Soll, J. B., and A. E. Mannes. “Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved.” International Journal of Forecasting 27, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 81–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.003.
Soll JB, Mannes AE. Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011 Jan 1;27(1):81–102.
Soll, J. B., and A. E. Mannes. “Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved.” International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 27, no. 1, Jan. 2011, pp. 81–102. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.003.
Soll JB, Mannes AE. Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved. International Journal of Forecasting. 2011 Jan 1;27(1):81–102.
Journal cover image

Published In

International Journal of Forecasting

DOI

ISSN

0169-2070

Publication Date

January 1, 2011

Volume

27

Issue

1

Start / End Page

81 / 102

Related Subject Headings

  • Econometrics
  • 4905 Statistics
  • 3802 Econometrics
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 0104 Statistics