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Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Yashin, AI; Manton, KG; Stallard, E
Published in: Journal of mathematical biology
January 1986

Analyses of human mortality data classified according to cause of death frequently are based on competing risk theory. In particular, the times to death for different causes often are assumed to be independent. In this paper, a competing risk model with a weaker assumption of conditional independence of the times to death, given an assumed stochastic covariate process, is developed and applied to cause specific mortality data from the Framingham Heart Study. The results generated under this conditional independence model are compared with analogous results under the standard marginal independence model. Under the assumption that this conditional independence model is valid, the comparison suggests that the standard model overestimates by 4% the effect on life expectancy at age 30 due to the hypothetical elimination of cancer and by 7% the effect for cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease. By age 80 the overestimates were 11% for cancer and 16% for heart disease. These results suggest the importance of avoiding the marginal independence assumption when appropriate data are available--especially when focusing on mortality at advanced ages.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Journal of mathematical biology

DOI

EISSN

1432-1416

ISSN

0303-6812

Publication Date

January 1986

Volume

24

Issue

2

Start / End Page

119 / 140

Related Subject Headings

  • Stochastic Processes
  • Risk
  • Mortality
  • Middle Aged
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Child, Preschool
  • Child
  • Bioinformatics
  • Analysis of Variance
 

Citation

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Yashin, A. I., Manton, K. G., & Stallard, E. (1986). Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 24(2), 119–140. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00275995
Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.Journal of Mathematical Biology 24, no. 2 (January 1986): 119–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00275995.
Yashin AI, Manton KG, Stallard E. Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model. Journal of mathematical biology. 1986 Jan;24(2):119–40.
Yashin, A. I., et al. “Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.Journal of Mathematical Biology, vol. 24, no. 2, Jan. 1986, pp. 119–40. Epmc, doi:10.1007/bf00275995.
Yashin AI, Manton KG, Stallard E. Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model. Journal of mathematical biology. 1986 Jan;24(2):119–140.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of mathematical biology

DOI

EISSN

1432-1416

ISSN

0303-6812

Publication Date

January 1986

Volume

24

Issue

2

Start / End Page

119 / 140

Related Subject Headings

  • Stochastic Processes
  • Risk
  • Mortality
  • Middle Aged
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Child, Preschool
  • Child
  • Bioinformatics
  • Analysis of Variance